As the holiday season approaches, anticipation is mounting for two major film releases set to hit theaters on November 22: Universal’s *Wicked* and Paramount’s *Gladiator II*. Both films are generating significant buzz and tracking impressive opening weekend projections, which could reshape the landscape of the box office as we know it.
Initial projections suggest that *Wicked* could open with more than $80 million, marking a potential record for filmmaker Jon M. Chu and stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. This fabulous adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical has ignited a particular excitement among female audiences, and it appears poised to become a phenomenal success.
Meanwhile, *Gladiator II* is tracking for a solid opening of around $65 million, expected to break records for its lead, Denzel Washington, and director Ridley Scott. Washington’s previous best debut was in 2007’s *American Gangster*, while Scott last achieved a significant opening with *Hannibal* in 2001. The anticipation surrounding this sequel seems tangible, especially as it seeks to outperform the original’s unadjusted opening of $34.8 million.
This upcoming Thanksgiving weekend features both films vying for attention, which is characteristic of the competitive nature of the holiday movie season. Historically, Black Friday has proven to be one of the most lucrative days for movie theaters, and with both *Wicked* and *Gladiator II* in the mix, the competition will be fierce. Speculating whether audiences will embrace one film over the other, or if they will flock to theaters in droves to see both, remains an intriguing uncertainty.
Awareness of both films is noteworthy, with tracking indicating an equal level of unaided awareness of 19% for each title. This refers to moviegoers naming these films without any prompts during surveys. However, total awareness numbers tell a more complex story; they hover in the low 80s for both films, with *Gladiator II* garnering a higher level of overall interest and first-choice selection, suggesting a broader demographic appeal beyond male audiences.
Interestingly, presale ticketing dynamics appear to favor *Wicked*, with reports indicating that its pre-sales are far exceeding those of *Gladiator II*. This trend could be attributed to the tendency of female audiences to plan ahead, often organizing group outings to the cinema. Current data suggests that presale figures for *Wicked* are double those of another upcoming release, *Beetlejuice*, yet still trailing behind the monumental buzz created by *Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour*.
Universal has ardently positioned *Wicked* as a cornerstone of their slate, marketing it prominently through high-profile slots during events like the Paris Olympics and the Super Bowl. Such strategic brand placement is likely intended to capitalize on the film’s origin story and attract widespread attention.
Initial critical and audience reactions to screenings have been overwhelmingly positive. Kristin Chenoweth, who originated the role of Glinda in the *Wicked* Broadway production, has lauded the film adaptation, claiming it is an experience that audiences “won’t even believe” in its excellence. While her theatrical involvement may be in the past, her endorsement signals confidence in the film’s appeal.
Moreover, Universal has opted for a strategic split in delivering *Wicked* across two films, with Part 2 slated for release in Thanksgiving 2025. This division allows for deeper exploration of the characters and story, promising fans a more nuanced viewing experience.
The competition posed by Disney’s *Moana 2*, initially scheduled to release close to *Wicked*, has now shifted, offering both films a more limitless opportunity to thrive without overlapping audiences. However, while *Gladiator II* is positioned for an international release ahead of *Wicked*, the combined allure of both films serves to enhance the excitement surrounding this year’s holiday cinematic offerings.
The upcoming releases of *Wicked* and *Gladiator II* uniquely position themselves against the backdrop of high anticipation and competitive ticket sales—a promising scenario for cinemas seeking to revitalize moviegoing excitement this Thanksgiving. As viewers prepare to make their selections, it remains to be seen how both films will fare in the box office arena.